Missouri Election

Polls close in 2 hours, 29 minutes, 7 pm Central, Nov 3

Missouri election night

Pre-election forecast · 12:24 pm Central, Nov 3Details

No returns yet. Until counties report, these are the pre-election forecasts.

Polls close at 7 pm Central. Once the first counties report, every figure on this page moves with the count. The Secretary of State’s results have the raw count.

Live estimates begin with qualifying returns. Displayed forecast: 12:24 pm Central, Nov 3.

Displayed model run: 12:24 pm Central, Nov 3. Received feed’s official source last checked: not recorded. This browser is checking for the latest feed. Checks every 30 seconds while this tab is visible and online.

Showing model run 12:24 pm Central, Nov 3.

The headline races

US House · MO-2

Fred Wellman (D) / Ann Wagner (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

House supermajority

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

Senate supermajority

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

All five ballot measures

Amendment 7

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

Amendment 8

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

Proposition A

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

Indigo: passes. Ochre: fails. What Yes and No mean →

The most competitive districts

The closest contested races in the published forecast. Their positions stay fixed as the needles move.

State House

Every House race →

House District 96

Matt Vitale (D) / Brad Christ (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

House District 101

Paul Lentz (D) / Ben Keathley (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

House District 16

Dan Kinate (D) / Chris Brown (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

House District 94

Cathy A Summers (D) / Maryellen Murphy (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

House District 105

Cat Clayton (D) / Colin Wellenkamp (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

House District 106

Jewel Kelly (D) / Travis Wilson (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

State Senate

Every Senate race →

Senate District 8

Keri Ingle (D) / Jon Patterson (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

Senate District 30

Betsy Fogle (D) / Melanie Stinnett (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

Senate District 34

Shereka Barnes (D) / Mike Jones (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

Statewide office

State Auditor

Quentin Wilson (D) / Scott Fitzpatrick (R)

Pre-election forecast

Model probability, not vote share

Current model projections

Qualifying returns and at least a 97.5% model chance. These can change with later returns.

No model projections to display yet.

Needles show model probabilities, not vote shares or the percentage counted. The hollow mark shows the before-returns estimate where available. Model projections are separate from completed or certified results. How the model works →

Reporting and resources

Missouri election headlines

Reporting from Missouri newsrooms. Headlines link to the original coverage.

Last complete feed check: .

Sources and feed checks
Try seat scenarios →
What would end the Republican supermajority? Democrats need 55 House seats or 12 Senate seats. Compare hypothetical totals with the published simulations.
Browse district maps →
Find candidates and forecasts on the connected House map or Senate map.
Find your district

Search by district number, candidate or address.

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Forecast updates →
See each dated model version, what changed, and the recorded reason for the revision.
Local races →
Selected St. Louis and Kansas City races, with candidates, ratings and sources. Coverage is separate from the statewide forecast.